Tag Archives: climate change

Global climate change consensus tops 95%!

Consensus!

Climate scientists agree: global climate change caused by humans1

March 11, 2014

Temperature data from four international science institutions. All show rapid warming in the past few decades and that the last decade has been the warmest on record.

Temperature data from four international science institutions. All show rapid warming in the past few decades and that the last decade has been the warmest on record.

Image from NASA.

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,2 and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.

American Scientific Societies

Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations

“Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.” (2009)3

AAAS emblem

American Association for the Advancement of Science

“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.” (2006)4

ACS emblem

American Chemical Society

“Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem.” (2004)5

AGU emblem

American Geophysical Union

“Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes.” (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)6

AMA emblem

American Medical Association

“Our AMA … supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant.” (2013)7

AMS emblem

American Meteorological Society

“It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide.” (2012)8

APS emblem

American Physical Society

“The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.” (2007)9

GSA emblem

The Geological Society of America

“The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s.” (2006; revised 2010)10

Science Academies

Joint science academies’ statement on Global response to climate change

International academies: Joint statement

“Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001).” (2005, 11 international science academies)11

USNAS emblem

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

“The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” (2005)12

U.S. Government Agencies

USGCRP emblem

U.S. Global Change Research Program

“The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human ‘fingerprints’ also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice.” (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)13

Federal agencies The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change:
http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf External link icon

Intergovernmental Bodies

IPCC emblem

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”14

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”15

 IPCC defines ‘very likely’ as greater than 90 percent probability of occurrence.

List of worldwide scientific organizations

Worldwide, nearly 200 scientific organizations hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.16

  1. Academia Chilena de Ciencias, Chile External link icon
  2. Academia das Ciencias de Lisboa, Portugal External link icon
  3. Academia de Ciencias de la República Dominicana External link icon
  4. Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de Venezuela External link icon
  5. Academia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala
  6. Academia Mexicana de Ciencias,Mexico External link icon
  7. Academia Nacional de Ciencias de Bolivia External link icon
  8. Academia Nacional de Ciencias del Peru External link icon
  9. Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal External link icon
  10. Académie des Sciences, France External link icon
  11. Academies of Arts, Humanities and Sciences of Canada External link icon
  12. Academy of Athens External link icon
  13. Academy of Science of Mozambique
  14. Academy of Science of South Africa External link icon
  15. Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS) External link icon
  16. Academy of Sciences Malaysia External link icon
  17. Academy of Sciences of Moldova External link icon
  18. Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic External link icon
  19. Academy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran External link icon
  20. Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt External link icon
  21. Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand External link icon
  22. Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy External link icon
  23. Africa Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science External link icon
  24. African Academy of Sciences External link icon
  25. Albanian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  26. Amazon Environmental Research Institute External link icon
  27. American Academy of Pediatrics External link icon
  28. American Anthropological Association External link icon
  29. American Association for the Advancement of Science External link icon
  30. American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) External link icon
  31. American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
  32. American Astronomical Society External link icon
  33. American Chemical Society External link icon
  34. American College of Preventive Medicine External link icon
  35. American Fisheries Society External link icon
  36. American Geophysical Union External link icon
  37. American Institute of Biological Sciences External link icon
  38. American Institute of Physics External link icon
  39. American Meteorological Society External link icon
  40. American Physical Society External link icon
  41. American Public Health Association External link icon
  42. American Quaternary Association External link icon
  43. American Society for Microbiology External link icon
  44. American Society of Agronomy External link icon
  45. American Society of Civil Engineers External link icon
  46. American Society of Plant Biologists External link icon
  47. American Statistical Association External link icon
  48. Association of Ecosystem Research Centers External link icon
  49. Australian Academy of Science External link icon
  50. Australian Bureau of Meteorology External link icon
  51. Australian Coral Reef Society External link icon
  52. Australian Institute of Marine Science External link icon
  53. Australian Institute of Physics External link icon
  54. Australian Marine Sciences Association External link icon
  55. Australian Medical Association External link icon
  56. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society External link icon
  57. Bangladesh Academy of Sciences External link icon
  58. Botanical Society of America External link icon
  59. Brazilian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  60. British Antarctic Survey External link icon
  61. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  62. California Academy of Sciences External link icon
  63. Cameroon Academy of Sciences
  64. Canadian Association of Physicists External link icon
  65. Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences External link icon
  66. Canadian Geophysical Union External link icon
  67. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society External link icon
  68. Canadian Society of Soil Science External link icon
  69. Canadian Society of Zoologists External link icon
  70. Caribbean Academy of Sciences views External link icon
  71. Center for International Forestry Research External link icon
  72. Chinese Academy of Sciences External link icon
  73. Colombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences
  74. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) (Australia) External link icon
  75. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research External link icon
  76. Croatian Academy of Arts and Sciences External link icon
  77. Crop Science Society of America External link icon
  78. Cuban Academy of Sciences External link icon
  79. Delegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters External link icon
  80. Ecological Society of America External link icon
  81. Ecological Society of Australia External link icon
  82. Environmental Protection Agency External link icon
  83. European Academy of Sciences and Arts External link icon
  84. European Federation of Geologists External link icon
  85. European Geosciences Union External link icon
  86. European Physical Society External link icon
  87. European Science Foundation External link icon
  88. Federation of American Scientists External link icon
  89. French Academy of Sciences External link icon
  90. Geological Society of America External link icon
  91. Geological Society of Australia External link icon
  92. Geological Society of London External link icon
  93. Georgian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  94. German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina External link icon
  95. Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences External link icon
  96. Indian National Science Academy External link icon
  97. Indonesian Academy of Sciences
  98. Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management External link icon
  99. Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology External link icon
  100. Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand External link icon
  101. Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK External link icon
  102. InterAcademy Council External link icon
  103. International Alliance of Research Universities External link icon
  104. International Arctic Science Committee External link icon
  105. International Association for Grea Lakes Research External link icon
  106. International Council for Science External link icon
  107. International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences External link icon
  108. International Research Institute for Climate and Society External link icon
  109. International Union for Quaternary Research External link icon
  110. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics External link icon
  111. International Union of Pure and Applied Physics External link icon
  112. Islamic World Academy of Sciences External link icon
  113. Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities External link icon
  114. Kenya National Academy of Sciences External link icon
  115. Korean Academy of Science and Technology External link icon
  116. Kosovo Academy of Sciences and Arts External link icon
  117. l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal External link icon
  118. Latin American Academy of Sciences External link icon
  119. Latvian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  120. Lithuanian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  121. Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters, and Sciences
  122. Mauritius Academy of Science and Technology
  123. Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and Arts External link icon
  124. National Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, Argentina External link icon
  125. National Academy of Sciences of Armenia External link icon
  126. National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic External link icon
  127. National Academy of Sciences, Sri Lanka External link icon
  128. National Academy of Sciences, United States of America External link icon
  129. National Aeronautics and Space Administration External link icon
  130. National Association of Geoscience Teachers External link icon
  131. National Association of State Foresters External link icon
  132. National Center for Atmospheric Research External link icon
  133. National Council of Engineers Australia External link icon
  134. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New Zealand External link icon
  135. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration External link icon
  136. National Research Council External link icon
  137. National Science Foundation External link icon
  138. Natural England External link icon
  139. Natural Environment Research Council, UK External link icon
  140. Natural Science Collections Alliance External link icon
  141. Network of African Science Academies External link icon
  142. New York Academy of Sciences External link icon
  143. Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences External link icon
  144. Nigerian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  145. Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters External link icon
  146. Oklahoma Climatological Survey External link icon
  147. Organization of Biological Field Stations External link icon
  148. Pakistan Academy of Sciences External link icon
  149. Palestine Academy for Science and Technology External link icon
  150. Pew Center on Global Climate Change External link icon
  151. Polish Academy of Sciences External link icon
  152. Romanian Academy External link icon
  153. Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium External link icon
  154. Royal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of Spain External link icon
  155. Royal Astronomical Society, UK External link icon
  156. Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters External link icon
  157. Royal Irish Academy External link icon
  158. Royal Meteorological Society (UK) External link icon
  159. Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences External link icon
  160. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research External link icon
  161. Royal Scientific Society of Jordan External link icon
  162. Royal Society of Canada External link icon
  163. Royal Society of Chemistry, UK External link icon
  164. Royal Society of the United Kingdom External link icon
  165. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences External link icon
  166. Russian Academy of Sciences External link icon
  167. Science and Technology, Australia External link icon
  168. Science Council of Japan External link icon
  169. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research External link icon
  170. Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics External link icon
  171. Scripps Institution of Oceanography External link icon
  172. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts External link icon
  173. Slovak Academy of Sciences External link icon
  174. Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts External link icon
  175. Society for Ecological Restoration International External link icon
  176. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics External link icon
  177. Society of American Foresters External link icon
  178. Society of Biology (UK) External link icon
  179. Society of Systematic Biologists External link icon
  180. Soil Science Society of America External link icon
  181. Sudan Academy of Sciences External link icon
  182. Sudanese National Academy of Science
  183. Tanzania Academy of Sciences External link icon
  184. The Wildlife Society (international) External link icon
  185. Turkish Academy of Sciences External link icon
  186. Uganda National Academy of Sciences External link icon
  187. Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities External link icon
  188. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change External link icon
  189. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research External link icon
  190. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution External link icon
  191. World Association of Zoos and Aquariums External link icon
  192. World Federation of Public Health Associations External link icon
  193. World Forestry Congress External link icon
  194. World Health Organization External link icon
  195. World Meteorological Organization External link icon
  196. Zambia Academy of Sciences
  197. Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences External link icon

References

1 NASA Global Climate Change – Consensus: 97% of climate scientists agree External link icon
2 W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107.

P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI: 10.1029/2009EO030002.

N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science Vol. 306 no. 5702, p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618.

3 Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations (2009) External link icon
4 AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change (2006) External link icon
5 ACS Public Policy Statement: Climate Change (2010-2013) External link icon
6 Human‐Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action (2013) External link icon
7 Global Climate Change and Human Health (2013) External link icon
8 Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (2012) External link icon
9 APS National Policy 07.1 Climate Change (2007) External link icon
10 GSA Position Statement on Climate Change (2010) External link icon
11 Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change (2005) External link icon
12 Understanding and Responding to Climate Change (2005) External link icon
13 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009) External link icon
14 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers (2007) External link icon
15 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers (2007) External link icon
16 Calafornia Office of Planning & Research List of Worldwide Scientific Organizations External link icon
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Role of Cloud Formation Underestimated

Role of Cloud Formation Underestimated

20140101 Deborah Smith of UNSW Science Sydney —


President Barack Obama

Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced, according to new research published in Nature that shows our climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research could solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.

“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from UNSW’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Professor Steven Sherwood.

“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide.”

The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.

Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation the updraughts often rise up to 15 km to form heavy rains, but can also rise just a few km before returning to the surface without forming such rains.

In addition, where updraughts rise this smaller distance they reduce total cloud cover because they pull more vapour away from the higher cloud forming regions than when only the deep ones are present.

Climate models that show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough of this lower-level process. They instead simulate nearly all updraughts rising to 15 km.

These deeper updraughts alone do not have the same effect, resulting in increased reflection of sunlight and reduced sensitivity of the global climate to atmospheric carbon dioxide.

However, real world observations show this behaviour is wrong.

When the processes are correct in the climate model, this produces cycles that take water vapour to a wider range of heights in the atmosphere, causing fewer clouds to form in a warmer climate. This increases the amount of sunlight and heat entering the atmosphere and increases the sensitivity of our climate to carbon dioxide or any other perturbation.

When water vapour processes are correctly represented, the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of carbon dioxide – which will occur in the next 50 years – means we can expect a temperature increase of at least 3°C and more likely 4°C by 2100.

“Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect, but what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by those models which predict less warming, not those that predict more,” said Professor Sherwood.

“Rises in global average temperatures of this magnitude will have profound impacts on the world and the economies of many countries if we don’t urgently start to curb our emissions."


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Solar Activity Not a Key Cause of Climate Change

December 23, 2013 From the University of Edinburgh…

Solar flare on the sun.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat from the sun.

A new scientific study shows climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat output from the sun.

The findings overturn a widely held scientific view that lengthy periods of warm and cold weather in the past might have been caused by periodic fluctuations in solar activity.

Volcano impact

Research examining the causes of climate change in the northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years has shown that until the year 1800, the key driver of periodic changes in climate was volcanic eruptions.

These tend to prevent sunlight reaching the Earth, causing cool, drier weather. Since 1900, greenhouse gases have been the primary cause of climate change.

The findings show that periods of low sun activity should not be expected to have a large impact on temperatures on Earth, and are expected to improve scientists’ understanding and help climate forecasting.

Historical data

Scientists at the University of Edinburgh carried out the study using records of past temperatures constructed with data from tree rings and other historical sources.

They compared this data record with computer-based models of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes in the sun.

They found that their model of weak changes in the sun gave the best correlation with temperature records, indicating that solar activity has had a minimal impact on temperature in the past millennium.

The study, published in Nature GeoScience, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council.

“Until now, the influence of the sun on past climate has been poorly understood. We hope that our new discoveries will help improve our understanding of how temperatures have changed over the past few centuries, and improve predictions for how they might develop in future. Links between the sun and anomalously cold winters in the UK are still being explored.”

Dr Andrew Schurer
School of GeoSciences

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Kool Image Noctilucent Clouds

     
  Kool Image

Green Apple

Noctilucent Clouds

 
 

Noctilucent clouds are the highest clouds in Earth’s atmosphere, being bright polar mesospheric clouds illuminated by the Arctic sun from below the horizon, between latitudes of 50° and 70°. They are composed of water ice crystals up to 100 nm across, forming most frequently in the northern summer at altitudes of 76 to 85 km (47 to 53 mi). The clouds form directly from water vapor and sometimes around dust: water may be produced from the reaction of CH4 and OH-, while the dust is believed to originate from micrometeors and possibly volcanic particulate matter entering the mesosphere. The clouds are detectable by radar and the observed increase in these clouds serves as a possible indicator of climate change. (Wikipedia)

Credit: © (CC by-nc-nd) Maurizio De Angelis/Wellcome Images


 

Global Sea Level Likely to Rise as Much as 70 Feet in Future Generations

     
  Hot News

 
 



Sea level rise

Credit: NASA
 
 

Global Sea Level Likely to Rise as Much as 70 Feet in Future Generations

 
     
 

March 19, 2012 Piscataway, NJ — Even if humankind manages to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendation, future generations will likely have to deal with a completely different world.

A world with sea levels 12 to 22 meters (40 to 70 feet) higher than now, according to Professor Kenneth Miller of Rutgers University. His research team published their research results this week in the journal Geology. They reached their conclusion by studying rock and soil cores from the late Pliocene epoch (2.7 million to 3.2 million years ago) taken in Virginia, New Zealand, and Eniwetok Atoll in the north Pacific Ocean. During the late Pliocene epoch the carbon dioxide level in Earth’s atmosphere was the same as today’s level and atmospheric temperatures were 2 C higher than today.

 

Published at: Geology External Line Icon